Sunday, August 20, 2006

Politics: Arctic Sovereignty

I'll say it right now... I don't like Canada's Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, and I like most of his policies even less.

But when he agreed to attend to his previous commitment of traveling to the Canadian arctic instead of going to the international AIDS conference in Toronto, I was pleased. While AIDS is certainly a very significant problem for the world and I support its elimination, I feel that Harper did the right thing.

The issue of Canadian arctic sovereignty was one of Harper's primary campaign points, and it should be expected that he come through on his promises, rather than suddenly go AWOL and fly back to do something he wasn't born to do (I'm of course referring to Harper making speeches, both cold and rehearsed, about things he doesn't care much about). He threw billions of dollars into the military so just let him do his thing.

With Global Warming opening up shipping lanes through the arctic and peaked international interest, it's only a matter of time until other northern countries start to really understand how insignificant the current Canadian arctic presence truly is. Once that happens (if it hasn't already), any small chance that Canada once had to demonstrate that the waters surrounding our northern islands are truly ours would be lost, and along with it possibly billions of dollars related to fishing, oil, and gas revenues. Is that what we want?

Harper is actually the first Prime Minister in the post-Cold War years (to my knowledge) to truly recognize the threat to Canada's territory and identity that is present. The Liberals under Chretien and Martin barked a lot, but didn't have much bite. Whether Prime Minister Harper's resolve is truly genuine or not has yet to be seen. It's one thing to stand up to the Dutch over the tiny rock called Hans Island and claim it for our own, but it's an entirely different matter to tell an American nuclear submarine to get lost.

Most other countries don't even recognize our territorial rights in the arctic, claiming that our northern waters are international waters. They reject any claim that we have over those arctic waterways. Inuit have recorded sightings of strange objects in those waters before, possibly even nuclear submarines from both the U.S. and Russia. If they're up there and don't see any red and white flags flapping in the wind, it's no surprise that their countries don't give a rat's ass about whatever we claim.

As it stands, Canada's military presence in the North is pitiful at best. A volunteer band of mostly Inuit reserve soldiers compose the Canadian Rangers, overwhelmingly tasked with patrolling the huge Canadian arctic coastline. They do this partly on snowmobiles with WW-II era rifles. I feel my confidence drifting away already.

The navy stands only slightly better, with icebreakers arriving during the summer for mostly resupply missions. Occasionally, you get a frigate to head north, such as when the Hans Island operation took place, but even those vessels are easily stranded in thick ice.

Long-range, all-weather aircraft are so few and far between that even if a ship was discovered in the north that shouldn't be there, it'd be too late to scramble any sort of response.

As you can see, Canada's hold over its arctic waters is weak at best. Canada needs the three all-season polar icebreakers that Harper had promised in his military budget, early in 2006. Unfortunately, those ships have yet to be officially announced, let alone constructed. Harper also described an arctic sensor net, which could possibly work, although shifting ice flows and weather would certainly make such a system a nightmare to maintain. Despite those flaws, I believe that our Prime Minister is on the right path to securing our northern region from interlopers.

Given that the land and waters are so treacherous within the Arctic circle, I would say that a satellite or two to assist in monitoring efforts would be worthwhile, especially if global warming continues to melt polar ice. I also don't see why Canada couldn't develop its own all-weather semi-autonomous drone aircraft to identify naval vessels - the technology and brain power is certainly available.

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